WTO chief: AI-related trade masks tariff turmoil as global goods growth slows

World Trade Organization Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said on Sept. 17 that booming AI-related trade is masking the negative impact of tariffs and other trade disruptions, warning that global trade growth would be hard to sustain if AI investment cools or if the AI boom proves to be a bubble.

Citing the latest WTO data, she said trade in AI-related goods such as semiconductors, chemicals and industrial equipment rose 42% year on year in the first quarter of 2026, while trade in non-AI goods grew only 7%. AI-related trade accounted for nearly 19% of global merchandise trade in the quarter. In 2025, global merchandise trade expanded 4.6%, beating the WTO's October 2025 forecast of 2.4%, driven mainly by AI-related goods linked to data center construction.

Okonjo-Iweala also said the benefits of AI are highly concentrated: in 2025, more than 60% of AI-related trade took place in Asia, while North America absorbed 76% of global venture capital.

The WTO's Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report, published in March 2026, projects that global merchandise trade volume growth will slow to 1.9% in 2026 as the AI-driven goods trade boom and tariff-front-running effects fade. If crude oil and LNG prices stay high throughout the year, growth could fall by another 0.5 percentage points.

Meanwhile, the multilateral trading system remains under strain. In its annual World Trade Report released Sept. 15, the WTO said about 72% of global goods trade was still conducted under most-favored-nation terms as of early 2026, down from about 80% in 2022. WTO chief economist Robert Staiger said newly imposed tariffs and trade restrictions now cover 11% of global imports, the highest level in more than 15 years. Okonjo-Iweala warned that failure to reform the trading system could cost the global economy up to 10% of output by 2050.