‘Big Short’ Investor Eisman Says AI Doomsday Warnings Aim to Create a Duopoly

Steve Eisman, the senior portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman and the investor portrayed in “The Big Short,” said in an interview that top AI laboratories’ doomsday warnings about artificial intelligence are not what they appear. He argued that these companies have realized their businesses lack durable moats and are therefore trying to create a sense of crisis to trigger regulation that they can eventually shape into a duopoly.

“The era of token maximization is over,” Eisman said, noting that open-weight models are gaining significant market share and that leading AI companies are feeling pressure. He is not alone in this view: Citadel Securities recently said rising costs are slowing the momentum of AI trading.

Eisman said he has trimmed his AI investments. He previously described OpenAI and Anthropic as the “Achilles’ heel” of the AI industry, given the sector’s heavy reliance on these two startups. He warned that if either company stumbles, the entire industry chain could collapse, and he considers OpenAI the weaker of the two.

Responding to calls for slowing AI development, Eisman said, if the technology were truly dangerous, companies should postpone their IPOs — but he has heard no such discussions. Prominent short-seller Michael Burry has also voiced similar skepticism, arguing that large AI companies may be pushing for regulation to slow fast-moving rivals, and questioning whether large language models even constitute AGI.