OpenAI Projects $278B Negative Free Cash Flow from 2026 to 2030, With $856B AI Infrastructure Spending

The Financial Times reported on September 18 that it obtained a presentation showing OpenAI expects to generate a cumulative $278 billion in negative free cash flow from 2026 to 2030, while planning to spend approximately $856 billion on computing power and infrastructure.

Negative free cash flow indicates that a company's operating and investment activities consume more cash than they generate, requiring existing cash, financing, or asset sales to cover the shortfall. According to the presentation, OpenAI's spending will far exceed its revenue, leaving a significant funding gap over the next five years.

On the revenue side, OpenAI is projected to generate $36 billion in 2026, rising to $350 billion by 2030, nearly a tenfold increase, with cumulative revenue of $840 billion from 2026 through 2030. However, spending is expected to grow faster, with cumulative AI infrastructure spending alone reaching $856 billion by the end of 2030. To compete with open-weight models and rivals like Anthropic, OpenAI may also need to cut some product prices, which would impact revenue.

OpenAI raised $122 billion in March 2026, and the presentation indicates that at current projections, these funds will be depleted by 2028. The company has recently initiated a new round of large-scale financing talks, with investors discussing a valuation of $1.2 trillion, while sources close to the company say OpenAI is seeking an even higher valuation.