Goldman Sachs Raises Global Data Center Behind-the-Meter Power Capacity Forecast to 67GW

Goldman Sachs' Carbonomics team published a 50-page report on September 27, raising its global data center behind-the-meter (BTM) power capacity forecast from 40GW to 67GW. The report expects gas turbines, reciprocating engines, and fuel cells to collectively supply 28% of U.S. and 25% of global data center electricity demand, with gas turbine orders already booked into 2031.

Goldman Sachs attributes the shift to grid expansion lagging far behind AI-driven demand growth. It projects that BTM generation will cover 25% of global data center electricity demand by 2030, up from nearly zero in 2025. Global data center installed capacity is expected to rise from 101GW in 2025 to 217GW by 2030, with the U.S. reaching 108GW.

The report highlights severe supply constraints in the gas turbine market. GE Vernova's backlog and reserved capacity have reached 116GW, with 2030 capacity fully sold out and over 50% of 2031 capacity already committed. Siemens Energy has cumulative commitments of 87GW, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries is negotiating projects for delivery in the 2030s. Engine makers are also under pressure, with Wärtsilä sold out for 2028 and INNIO's backlog exceeding 15GW.

Goldman Sachs ranks fuel cells as the top option in its scoring system despite their highest levelized cost, citing the fastest deployment time and direct DC output that aligns with Nvidia's 800V high-voltage DC rack architecture. The bank views small modular reactors as the only scalable permanent solution after 2030, but says large-scale deployment is unlikely before then due to construction timelines.