TSMC Beats Q3 Expectations, Flags Three-Year Capex Surge Beyond $100B

TSMC reported its third-quarter results on October 15, with revenue reaching $46.6 billion, up 16% quarter over quarter and about 2% above market consensus. The company guided fourth-quarter revenue to a midpoint of $53.3 billion, roughly 6% above expectations, and maintained a full-year growth outlook of 44%.

Management confirmed that 2026 capital expenditure will remain in the range of $60 billion to $64 billion, and said cumulative capex for 2026-2028 will significantly exceed the roughly $101 billion spent in 2023-2025. TSMC also said revenue growth should continue to outpace capex growth as investment ramps up.

On capacity expansion, TSMC plans to build 13 advanced chip and advanced packaging fabs in Taiwan and five to six additional fabs overseas. For process nodes, A14 is expected to enter risk production in 2027 and volume production in 2028; N2 capacity is planned to double in 2027; and N3 expansion will be more aggressive than previously guided.

Overseas, the second fab in Arizona has completed construction and is in the equipment installation phase, with volume production targeted for Q3 2027, slightly ahead of plan. The second fab in Kumamoto, Japan (JASM) is expected to start N3 volume production in 2028.

TSMC also said it plans to introduce High-NA EUV lithography equipment around 2030, when capex levels could be significantly higher than current levels.