Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert RUBIN: AI Investment Collapse Unlikely, but Exposure Significant

On October 19, at the 2026 Bund Summit in Shanghai, former U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert RUBIN joined a dialogue with Huang Yiping, dean of the National School of Development at Peking University, discussing the impact of artificial intelligence on employment and investment risks.

RUBIN said AI could bring significant productivity gains but also risked large-scale job losses. Even if overall employment in an industry does not decline, he said, there is a high probability that many knowledge workers will lose their positions and have to switch to other types of work, a transition that could be extremely complex since they may lack the necessary skills. He also said the effects of AI on economic growth and fiscal conditions remain highly uncertain.

Asked about the possibility of a systemic crisis given that AI investment is reportedly far larger than the dot-com bubble, RUBIN acknowledged large risk exposure in lending to AI-related activities. However, he said the chance of a collapse is relatively low because major U.S. banks are well capitalized and provide most AI-related loans, while regional banks are not involved in such lending. He noted some non-bank lenders have problems that may need to be addressed, but systemic risk is likely very low.