Waller said productivity gains from AI typically take years to emerge and are not yet fully reflected in economic data; per-capita GDP is highly correlated with AI adoption, and adoption gaps may widen future GDP disparities. He noted that trillion-dollar AI investment is boosting short-term demand, that cloud providers' expanding computing investment makes demand less price-sensitive, and that rising long-term Treasury yields reflect growth expectations and fiscal concerns rather than inflation. He called AI a tool and said it will not end humanity within two years.
Barr said it is reasonable to consider AI boosting productivity in the medium term, though the specifics and timing are hard to predict. He is optimistic about AI raising productivity in the long run, said it is too early to judge whether AI will lift the neutral interest rate, and noted that broad productivity gains may take time while AI-related investment and demand have already had measurable effects on prices.