Khosla: Over Half of Robot Startups to See Lower Valuations by 2030

Vinod Khosla, founder of Khosla Ventures, said in a recent interview that by 2030, more than half of robotics startups will be valued lower than their current levels, predicting a major shakeout in the industry while the surviving leaders will command exceptionally high valuation multiples. He also reiterated his view that the robotics sector is approaching its own "ChatGPT moment," which he expects by 2028.

Khosla ranked OpenAI as the most likely company to trigger that inflection point, followed by DeepMind and then Anthropic. He noted that Meta is conducting specialized research in home robots. He added that Anthropic has just started in robotics and is entering late, so he does not see it as a strong competitor.

He also said he has passed on investing in some companies purely because valuations were too high, keeping a list of such firms. He described the pattern of monthly funding rounds and rising valuations as abnormal. Still, he acknowledged that some high-valuation companies are worth the price, citing AI coding startup Cognition, which he first invested in 2023, as a case where subsequent growth proved the investment worthwhile.

Khosla Ventures has backed several robotics startups, including Rhoda AI, which trains foundation models for robots, and Aim, which focuses on autonomous earthmoving equipment. Earlier, China's National Development and Reform Commission warned that more than 150 domestic companies are developing humanoid robots, signaling potential bubble risks. Humanoid robot leader Unitree went public on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in August 2026, with volatile trading on its first day.